January 31, 2023
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Here is a fact that may surprise you.

If you’re like me, you may have guessed (or guessed) that the Republicans gained their new majority in the US House of Representatives in the medium term mainly through successful manipulation of previous cycles.

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Obviously not. Perhaps they won it the old fashioned way.

New York Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn reported this week that Republican House candidates actually received more collective votes across the country than Democrats (and thus a Republican majority in the House has more democratic legitimacy).

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Yes, that’s right, although the national margin was small (well, three percentage points if you call it small), if you mix all 435 House races together, Republicans will have 51 percent of the total vote to Democrats’ 48, leaving room for tiny third party vote.

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As regular Black Ink readers know, I didn’t support the Republicans. But I believe in facing the facts.

You can read the details via Kona here if you have access to the Times.

Cohn points out that something similar happened in 2020, when the national vote for Republicans in the House of Representatives surpassed the national vote for their presidential candidate, like him. But if you follow that link above, you’ll see that in 44 of the 50 states, Republican House candidates in 2022 received a larger share of the vote than Trump did during his 2020 defeat by Joe Biden.

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(The six exceptions in which Democratic House candidates in 2022 did slightly better, though only in percentage terms, than Biden in 2020 were Maine, New Hampshire, West Virginia, Kansas, Alaska and Hawaii. )

The explanation, rather obvious, is that Republican House candidates are much more liked by their local Republicans than Trump, after at least four years in the White House.

I’m not sure if this unexpected (at least for me) fact will surprise you, but I pass it on to you because it’s worth it.

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#Unpacking #votes #House #Representatives #Republican #candidates #country #Trump

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